Alberta’s NDP Borrowed 2.4 Times As Much Money In Their Last 3 Years Compared to the PC’s

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Jason Kenny UCP vs Rachel Notely NDP Alberta SpendingSince the Alberta election call this week, there has been much talk of spending problems in both the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party (PC, now the United Conservative Party UCP) and the Alberta New Democratic Party (NDP). To make an apples to apples comparison, we made four assumptions:

  1. the first year of any government is really the financial responsibility of the previous government, so we ‘charged’ :
    1. the PC’s with March 2013 through March 2016
    2. the NDP with March 2016 through March 2019
  2. we assumed that currency exchange rates are what they are on today’s date
  3. all debt is payable at the end of the term
    1. this is not accurate as most government bonds have a “coupons” which means interest payments are paid annually
    2. we did this to compare apples to apples
  4. a 3% interest rate for all floating rates

Given those four assumptions we analysed the Province of Alberta’s own published debt numbers and calculated:

  1. Between March 2013 and 2016 Alberta PC’s (now the UCP) borrowed about $20B that will result in total debt (including interest) of about $28B
  2. Between March 2016 and 2019 Alberta NDP’s borrowed about $50B that will result in a total debt (including interest) of about $67B

Factors to Consider Beyond these Numbers:

In fairness to the NDP:

  1. the NDP were in power but had virtually no control over the largest collapse in oil prices and Alberta economic collapse in history
  2. Some of the borrowing under the Alberta NDP tenure was done refinance debt that the previous Alberta PC Government had taken on
  3. Both parties had to deal with and pay for unexpected massive nature disasters.  The PC’s handled the burning of Slave Lake in 2011 and the NDP handled the burning of Fort McMurray in 2016

As an editorial comment we think that all readers should be reminded that it is unlikely the Alberta UCP/PC’s or any other party would not have massively increased debt during this time.  The question is, is 2.4 times as much as the previous already ‘spendy’ PC’s reasonable?

Alberta’s Provincial Debt Numbers So You Can Do Your Own Calculations:

Bond Transaction Information all Alberta Outstanding Debt as or March 2019
Trade Date Trade Date Year Par Amount in Millions  Effective Cost of Debt Maturity Date Maturity Year Cur CDN $ Owed in Millions 
25-Oct 2005 $54.00 4.43% 1-Jun 2019 CAD $87.49
26-Sep 2008 $86.43 4.90% 15-Jan 2022 CAD $145.72
26-Sep 2008 $86.43 4.95% 15-Jan 2023 CAD $150.60
26-Sep 2008 $86.43 4.97% 15-Jan 2024 CAD $155.16
21-Sep 2009 $600.00 4.17% 1-Dec 2019 CAD $850.32
26-Oct 2009 $32.45 4.15% 2-Nov 2019 CAD $45.92
24-Nov 2009 $66.52 3.88% 2-Nov 2019 CAD $9.23
9-Dec 2009 $350.00 4.00% 1-Dec 2019 CAD $489.86
20-Jan 2010 $600.00 4.59% 1-Dec 2040 CAD $1,426.20
28-Sep 2010 $150.00 3.38% 1-Dec 2019 CAD $195.58
22-Feb 2011 $100.00 3.94% 1-Mar 2021 CAD $139.40
13-Apr 2011 $30.00 4.35% 1-Jun 2026 CAD $49.58
27-Oct 2011 $45.00 3.57% 3-Nov 2026 CAD $69.09
17-Jan 2012 $100.00 2.90% 19-Jan 2024 CAD $134.75
27-Feb 2012 $120.00 3.03% 2-Mar 2025 CAD $167.26
27-Feb 2012 $120.00 3.10% 2-Mar 2026 CAD $172.08
27-Feb 2012 $40.72 3.17% 2-Mar 2027 CAD $60.08
18-Jul 2012 $100.00 2.98% 20-Sep 2029 CAD $150.60
10-Aug 2012 $30.00 3.01% 20-Sep 2029 CAD $45.34
23-Aug 2012 $720.00 2.65% 15-Dec 2022 CAD $910.72
7-Sep 2012 $170.00 3.05% 20-Sep 2029 CAD $258.23
17-Sep 2012 $600.00 2.73% 15-Dec 2022 CAD $763.80
8-Nov 2012 $125.50 3.04% 20-Sep 2029 CAD $189.51
30-Nov 2012 $275.50 2.14% 1-Dec 2019 CAD $316.09
25-Jan 2013 $247.77 3.19% 20-Sep 2029 CAD $374.12
25-Feb 2013 $196.61 3.41% 1-Mar 2033 CAD $329.85
12-Mar 2013 $500.00 2.77% 15-Dec 2022 CAD $624.47
4-Jun 2013 $500.00 3.52% 1-Dec 2043 CAD $1,027.25
10-Jun 2013 $100.00 3 mo. CDOR + 0.140% 17-Jun 2020 CAD $121.00
11-Jun 2013 $65.00 3 mo. CDOR + 0.140% 17-Jun 2020 CAD $78.65
23-Jul 2013 $500.00 3.58% 20-Sep 2029 CAD $786.40
23-Jul 2013 $325.50 3.59% 20-Sep 2029 CAD $511.68
6-Sep 2013 $50.00 3.99% 20-Sep 2029 CAD $81.92
11-Sep 2013 $50.00 4.05% 20-Sep 2029 CAD $82.39
24-Sep 2013 $500.00 3.51% 1-Dec 2023 CAD $675.50
28-Oct 2013 $60.00 3.91% 2-Nov 2037 CAD $116.23
29-Oct 2013 $500.00 3.96% 1-Dec 2043 CAD $1,093.25
5-Nov 2013 $150.00 3.80% 20-Sep 2029 CAD $241.29
20-Nov 2013 $140.00 3.95% 1-Dec 2033 CAD $250.60
20-Nov 2013 $325.50 3.95% 1-Dec 2033 CAD $581.75
4-Dec 2013 $200.00 4.04% 1-Dec 2033 CAD $361.56
5-Dec 2013 $110.00 4.06% 1-Dec 2033 CAD $199.29
6-Dec 2013 $215.50 4.06% 1-Dec 2033 CAD $389.49
10-Dec 2013 $225.50 3.95% 1-Dec 2033 CAD $402.52
29-Jan 2014 $110.00 3.68% 1-Dec 2033 CAD $186.95
30-Jan 2014 $140.00 3.68% 1-Dec 2033 CAD $237.75
12-Feb 2014 $50.00 3.20% 1-Dec 2023 CAD $64.40
26-Mar 2014 $600.00 3.19% 1-Jun 2024 CAD $791.28
11-Apr 2014 $500.00 3.81% 1-Dec 2043 CAD $1,051.87
29-Apr 2014 $25.00 3.49% 8-May 2029 CAD $38.09
5-May 2014 $200.00 2.09% 1-Jun 2019 CAD $220.93
5-May 2014 $300.00 2.09% 1-Jun 2019 CAD $331.39
22-May 2014 $500.00 3.70% 1-Dec 2043 CAD $1,035.77
11-Jun 2014 $1,268.68 3.49% 1-Jun 2031 CAD $2,019.65
24-Jun 2014 $50.00 1.96% 1-Jun 2019 CAD $54.89
25-Jun 2014 $50.00 2.68% 15-Dec 2022 CAD $60.71
25-Sep 2014 $291.14 3.17% 2-Oct 2029 CAD $429.98
28-Oct 2014 $25.00 3.12% 3-Nov 2029 CAD $36.68
14-Jan 2015 $500.00 2.45% 1-Jun 2025 CAD $622.65
5-Feb 2015 $500.00 2.03% 1-Jun 2025 CAD $601.70
17-Feb 2015 $200.00 1.33% 1-Jun 2020 CAD $213.25
17-Feb 2015 $300.00 1.33% 1-Jun 2020 CAD $319.87
12-Mar 2015 $500.00 2.23% 1-Jun 2025 CAD $611.40
17-Mar 2015 $500.00 2.88% 1-Dec 2043 CAD $903.76
26-May 2015 $29.00 3.02% 1-Nov 2035 CAD $46.51
4-Jun 2015 $600.00 1.56% 1-Jun 2020 CAD $646.86
5-Jun 2015 $135.50 3 mo. CDOR + 0.140% 17-Jun 2020 CAD $155.25
5-Jun 2015 $100.00 3 mo. CDOR + 0.140% 17-Jun 2020 CAD $115.00
5-Jun 2015 $80.00 3 mo. CDOR + 0.140% 17-Jun 2020 CAD $92.00
23-Jul 2015 $500.00 2.34% 1-Jun 2025 CAD $616.95
5-Aug 2015 $200.00 2.11% 1-Jun 2024 CAD $237.99
19-Aug 2015 $1,250.50 1.87% 26-Aug 2020 USD $1,367.06
1-Sep 2015 $50.00 1.78% 3-Dec 2040 EUR $109.83
9-Sep 2015 $108.89 3.33% 1-Dec 2046 CAD $221.50
9-Sep 2015 $391.10 3.33% 1-Dec 2046 CAD $794.95
16-Sep 2015 $375.50 1.50% 1-Jun 2020 CAD $403.10
16-Sep 2015 $125.50 1.50% 1-Jun 2020 CAD $134.36
9-Oct 2015 $750.00 2.59% 1-Jun 2025 CAD $944.02
15-Oct 2015 $500.00 1.52% 1-Jun 2020 CAD $537.97
15-Oct 2015 $250.00 1.52% 1-Jun 2020 CAD $268.98
15-Oct 2015 $76.00 1.90% 3-Dec 2040 EUR $170.26
26-Oct 2015 $58.00 2.07% 2-Nov 2023 CAD $67.61
25-Nov 2015 $500.00 1.56% 1-Jun 2020 CAD $539.10
1-Dec 2015 $76.00 1.83% 3-Dec 2040 EUR $168.30
25-Jan 2016 $200.00 2.55% 1-Jun 2025 CAD $245.81
25-Jan 2016 $300.00 2.55% 1-Jun 2025 CAD $368.71
29-Jan 2016 $500.00 1.89% 6-Apr 2021 USD $731.50
23-Feb 2016 $500.00 3.32% 1-Dec 2046 CAD $997.85
15-Mar 2016 $600.00 3.38% 1-Dec 2046 CAD $1,207.68
24-May 2016 $1,000.00 3.29% 1-Dec 2046 CAD $1,987.90
3-Jun 2016 $125.50 3.22% 14-Dec 2026 AUD $156.94
14-Jun 2016 $762.20 2.30% 1-Jun 2026 CAD $937.03
14-Jun 2016 $438.80 2.30% 1-Jun 2026 CAD $538.60
16-Jun 2016 $1,900.00 1.42% 1-Sep 2021 CAD $2,035.18
8-Aug 2016 $100.00 2.09% 1-Jun 2026 CAD $120.89
8-Aug 2016 $400.00 2.09% 1-Jun 2026 CAD $483.56
8-Aug 2016 $500.00 2.09% 1-Jun 2026 CAD $604.45
10-Aug 2016 $600.00 2.12% 17-Aug 2026 USD $726.90
10-Aug 2016 $400.00 2.12% 17-Aug 2026 USD $484.60
8-Sep 2016 $600.00 2.84% 1-Dec 2046 CAD $1,110.84
9-Sep 2016 $175.50 1.18% 1-Dec 2043 EUR $350.68
6-Oct 2016 $95.00 1.42% 1-Sep 2021 CAD $101.72
6-Oct 2016 $830.00 1.42% 1-Sep 2021 CAD $888.72
17-Oct 2016 $700.00 3.01% 1-Dec 2046 CAD $1,331.26
19-Oct 2016 $75.00 3.12% 14-Dec 2026 AUD $93.36
3-Nov 2016 $800.00 2.23% 1-Jun 2026 CAD $978.64
30-Nov 2016 $300.00 2.56% 1-Jun 2026 CAD $376.71
30-Nov 2016 $200.00 2.56% 1-Jun 2026 CAD $251.14
1-Dec 2016 $2,250.50 1.95% 6-Dec 2019 USD $3,184.16
13-Dec 2016 $165.50 1.88% 1-Dec 2043 EUR $377.70
13-Dec 2016 $45.00 1.95% 1-Dec 2043 EUR $104.32
13-Dec 2016 $600.00 3.45% 1-Dec 2046 CAD $1,221.36
27-Jan 2017 $50.00 1.91% 1-Dec 2043 EUR $113.78
16-Feb 2017 $650.00 1.07% 15-Nov 2021 GBP $1,189.05
28-Feb 2017 $600.00 2.61% 1-Jun 2027 CAD $756.66
29-Mar 2017 $700.00 3.37% 1-Dec 2046 CAD $1,384.92
24-Apr 2017 $300.00 2.50% 1-Jun 2027 CAD $374.94
24-Apr 2017 $300.00 2.50% 1-Jun 2027 CAD $374.94
4-May 2017 $450.00 1.73% 1-Sep 2022 CAD $488.81
4-May 2017 $300.00 1.73% 1-Sep 2022 CAD $325.87
30-May 2017 $900.00 3.08% 1-Dec 2048 CAD $1,759.59
7-Jun 2017 $900.00 3.01% 1-Dec 2048 CAD $1,739.79
17-Jul 2017 $500.00 3.24% 1-Dec 2048 CAD $1,001.73
19-Jul 2017 $1,500.00 2.26% 26-Jul 2022 USD $2,231.59
26-Jul 2017 $350.00 2.83% 1-Jun 2027 CAD $448.98
26-Jul 2017 $350.00 2.83% 1-Jun 2027 CAD $448.98
1-Aug 2017 $150.00 0.95% 15-Nov 2021 GBP $273.15
5-Sep 2017 $600.00 3.22% 1-Dec 2048 CAD $1,199.10
19-Sep 2017 $1,200.00 3.39% 1-Dec 2048 CAD $2,460.70
4-Oct 2017 $50.00 3.50% 14-Dec 2026 AUD $64.29
4-Oct 2017 $250.00 3.69% 11-Apr 2028 AUD $333.60
26-Oct 2017 $60.00 3.17% 2-Nov 2037 CAD $98.01
30-Oct 2017 $100.00 2.76% 1-Jun 2027 CAD $127.55
30-Oct 2017 $300.00 2.76% 1-Jun 2027 CAD $382.65
30-Oct 2017 $300.00 2.76% 1-Jun 2027 CAD $382.65
17-Nov 2017 $200.00 3.11% 1-Dec 2048 CAD $392.51
17-Nov 2017 $300.00 3.11% 1-Dec 2048 CAD $588.76
7-Dec 2017 $60.00 3.21% 11-Apr 2028 AUD $77.05
16-Jan 2018 $500.00 3.13% 1-Dec 2048 CAD $969.65
16-Jan 2018 $200.00 3.13% 1-Dec 2048 CAD $387.86
17-Jan 2018 $50.00 3.45% 11-Apr 2028 AUD $63.82
19-Jan 2018 $55.00 3.44% 14-Dec 2026 AUD $66.57
20-Feb 2018 $200.00 3.35% 14-Dec 2026 AUD $240.70
8-Mar 2018 $1,250.50 3.34% 15-Mar 2028 USD $2,229.48
11-Apr 2018 $1,500.00 0.70% 18-Apr 2025 EUR $2,102.92
16-Apr 2018 $300.00 3.03% 1-Jun 2027 CAD $381.83
16-Apr 2018 $300.00 3.03% 1-Jun 2027 CAD $381.83
20-Apr 2018 $50.00 3.39% 11-Apr 2028 AUD $63.52
15-May 2018 $200.00 3.35% 1-Dec 2048 CAD $400.82
15-May 2018 $700.00 3.35% 1-Dec 2048 CAD $1,402.87
4-Jun 2018 $900.00 3.00% 1-Dec 2028 CAD $1,170.18
13-Jul 2018 $700.00 3.05% 1-Dec 2048 CAD $1,339.66
14-Aug 2018 $500.00 2.72% 1-Sep 2023 CAD $568.00
14-Aug 2018 $750.00 2.72% 1-Sep 2023 CAD $852.00
12-Sep 2018 $500.00 3.14% 1-Jun 2050 CAD $1,002.56
2-Oct 2018 $100.00 3.13% 1-Dec 2028 CAD $131.30
2-Oct 2018 $300.00 3.13% 1-Dec 2028 CAD $393.90
2-Oct 2018 $500.00 3.13% 1-Dec 2028 CAD $656.50
25-Oct 2018 $2,050.50 3.40% 1-Nov 2023 USD $3,206.52
25-Oct 2018 $200.00 3.40% 1-Nov 2023 USD $312.83
26-Oct 2018 $25.00 3.26% 2-Nov 2037 CAD $40.49
12-Dec 2018 $500.00 3.31% 1-Jun 2050 CAD $1,029.28
9-Jan 2019 $1,250.50 0.70% 16-Jan 2026 EUR $1,992.34
15-Jan 2019 $1,750.50 3.01% 23-Jan 2024 USD $2,691.30
17-Jan 2019 $325.50 0.40% 7-Feb 2029 CHF $454.90
22-Jan 2019 $250.00 1.55% 15-Dec 2022 GBP $458.99
23-Jan 2019 $50.00 3.03% 11-Apr 2028 AUD $60.39
1-Feb 2019 $400.00 2.85% 1-Dec 2028 CAD $502.42
1-Feb 2019 $100.00 2.85% 1-Dec 2028 CAD $125.60
12-Feb 2019 $1,100.00 1.40% 20-Feb 2029 SEK $182.62
12-Feb 2019 $1,400.00 1.40% 20-Feb 2029 SEK $232.43
12-Feb 2019 $500.00 3.17% 1-Jun 2050 CAD $991.81
19-Feb 2019 $750.00 8.05% 26-Feb 2024 ZAR $98.88
20-Feb 2019 $1,000.00 2.76% 1-Dec 2028 CAD $1,248.67

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