The Green Party of Canada was on the fringe until the last two elections.  Previously they had a logical platform that was very similar to the Conservatives but with a focus on clean energy and illogical rejection of Nuclear energy.  However, Green positions have recently moved the far left, by Canadian standards.

This repositioning of the party has put them in direct competition with the New Democratic Party for votes, as the Conservatives and Liberals attract nearly all of the center.

After the October 21st 2019 Canadian Federal Election, we thought it would be interesting to analyze the data and see what would have happened if the Green Party had not split the traditional left vote.

Adding the seats won by the Greens and NDP only totals to 27 which tells us almost nothing we did not already know.  Instead we invested a few hours to combined the NDP and Green votes in each riding and tallied it up the winnings.

Putting NDP and Greens voters back together would have propelled them from being Canada’s forth and fifth place parties into Canada’s third place finisher with an historically significant 37 seats:

PartySeats
Liberal157
Conservative121
Combined NDP & Green37
Block Quebecois32
Independent1

 

2019 Canadian Federal Election Results Combining Greens and NDP

 

Below are the results of every NDP election since inception in 1962.  You can see in the last row that if Green and NDP supporters voted as one, they would have achieved a highly respectable 22.4%.  Their historical average is just 16.6%.

In fact if the two parties had combined, the NDP/Greens would have had their second greatest finish ever:

 

ElectionLeaderSeats+/–Votes%Status/Gov.
1962Tommy Douglas19 / 265Increase 111,044,75413.57Fourth party
196317 / 265Decrease 21,044,70113.22Fourth party
196521 / 265Increase 41,381,65817.91Third party
196822 / 264Increase 11,378,26316.96Third party
1972David Lewis31 / 264Increase 91,725,71917.83Third party
197416 / 264Decrease 151,467,74815.44Third party
1979Ed Broadbent26 / 282Increase 102,048,98817.88Third party
198032 / 282Increase 62,165,08719.77Third party
198430 / 282Decrease 22,359,91518.81Third party
198843 / 295Increase 132,685,26320.38Third party
1993Audrey McLaughlin9 / 295Decrease 34939,5756.88No status
1997Alexa McDonough21 / 301Increase 121,434,50911.05Fourth party
200013 / 301Decrease 81,093,7488.51Fourth party
2004Jack Layton19 / 308Increase 62,127,40315.68Fourth party
200629 / 308Increase 102,589,59717.48Fourth party
200837 / 308Increase 82,515,28818.18Fourth party
2011103 / 308Increase 664,508,47430.63Official Opposition
2015Tom Mulcair44 / 338Decrease 593,441,40919.71Third party
2019Jagmeet Singh24 / 338Decrease 202,849,21415.9Fourth party
2019If NDP & Green Combined37 / 338Decrease 74,011,57522.4%Third party

 

If you are interested in Canadian elections, you might find our article A View From The Inside Of The 2019 Canadian Federal Election: Everyone Can Vote to be worth three minutes of your time.

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