If Greens Did Not Split the NDP Vote, Canada’s 2019 Federal Election Would Have Had A Different Outcome

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The Green Party of Canada was on the fringe until the last two elections.  Previously they had a logical platform that was very similar to the Conservatives but with a focus on clean energy and illogical rejection of Nuclear energy.  However, Green positions have recently moved the far left, by Canadian standards.

This repositioning of the party has put them in direct competition with the New Democratic Party for votes, as the Conservatives and Liberals attract nearly all of the center.

After the October 21st 2019 Canadian Federal Election, we thought it would be interesting to analyze the data and see what would have happened if the Green Party had not split the traditional left vote.

Adding the seats won by the Greens and NDP only totals to 27 which tells us almost nothing we did not already know.  Instead we invested a few hours to combined the NDP and Green votes in each riding and tallied it up the winnings.

Putting NDP and Greens voters back together would have propelled them from being Canada’s forth and fifth place parties into Canada’s third place finisher with an historically significant 37 seats:

Party Seats
Liberal 157
Conservative 121
Combined NDP & Green 37
Block Quebecois 32
Independent 1

 

2019 Canadian Federal Election Results Combining Greens and NDP

 

Below are the results of every NDP election since inception in 1962.  You can see in the last row that if Green and NDP supporters voted as one, they would have achieved a highly respectable 22.4%.  Their historical average is just 16.6%.

In fact if the two parties had combined, the NDP/Greens would have had their second greatest finish ever:

 

Election Leader Seats +/– Votes % Status/Gov.
1962 Tommy Douglas 19 / 265 Increase 11 1,044,754 13.57 Fourth party
1963 17 / 265 Decrease 2 1,044,701 13.22 Fourth party
1965 21 / 265 Increase 4 1,381,658 17.91 Third party
1968 22 / 264 Increase 1 1,378,263 16.96 Third party
1972 David Lewis 31 / 264 Increase 9 1,725,719 17.83 Third party
1974 16 / 264 Decrease 15 1,467,748 15.44 Third party
1979 Ed Broadbent 26 / 282 Increase 10 2,048,988 17.88 Third party
1980 32 / 282 Increase 6 2,165,087 19.77 Third party
1984 30 / 282 Decrease 2 2,359,915 18.81 Third party
1988 43 / 295 Increase 13 2,685,263 20.38 Third party
1993 Audrey McLaughlin 9 / 295 Decrease 34 939,575 6.88 No status
1997 Alexa McDonough 21 / 301 Increase 12 1,434,509 11.05 Fourth party
2000 13 / 301 Decrease 8 1,093,748 8.51 Fourth party
2004 Jack Layton 19 / 308 Increase 6 2,127,403 15.68 Fourth party
2006 29 / 308 Increase 10 2,589,597 17.48 Fourth party
2008 37 / 308 Increase 8 2,515,288 18.18 Fourth party
2011 103 / 308 Increase 66 4,508,474 30.63 Official Opposition
2015 Tom Mulcair 44 / 338 Decrease 59 3,441,409 19.71 Third party
2019 Jagmeet Singh 24 / 338 Decrease 20 2,849,214 15.9 Fourth party
2019 If NDP & Green Combined 37 / 338 Decrease 7 4,011,575 22.4% Third party

 

If you are interested in Canadian elections, you might find our article A View From The Inside Of The 2019 Canadian Federal Election: Everyone Can Vote to be worth three minutes of your time.

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